One Minute to Midnight

Notes on One Minute to Midnight by Michael Dobbs.

Synthesis

TODO

Notes

Preface

Extremely impressive to have like half a book devoted to 2 days in time. Dobbs claims there’s tons of novel information relative to existing work on the crisis, and while I’m in no position to judge, this would be surprising. Or rather, I’d be surprised to see it all fit into a cohesive narrative—I can imagine there’s tons of information out there in general, but most of it is just random.

Would also be curious to know how much information was left out.

it is worth remembering that any one of those subplots could have become the main plot at any time

October 16

Yes, yes, of course Kennedy’s first reaction is “what about the midterms?”

todo page 8

Noting that I still am surprised by how often decisions are political rather than rational (e.g. brinksmanship to not back down on statements made even if the situation hasn’t materially changed). This should update me slightly against game theoretic descriptions being accurate.

incredible list of options provided by the CIA here.

“odds are even on an H-bomb within ten years”

Based, Kennedy giving out P(doom)s before it was cool. And not too uncalibrated, it looks like.

October 19

Say what you will about LeMay, he was honest. c.f. other generals who waited for Kennedy to leave before expressing their true beliefs.

October 20

Surprising to me that the speechwriter got a say in deciding whether to airstrike or blockade.

October 22

Both Kennedy and Khrushchev were pre-emptively aware of the risks of nuclear war over this scuffle before it escalated. “The tragic thing is that they can attack us, and we will respond… This could all end up in a big war.” - Khrushchev