Kenneth Rogoff

Notes on Dwarkesh’s interview with Kenneth Rogoff.

China is Stagnating

As recently as 2016 (i.e. 4 years into Xi Jinping’s rule), Rogoff was able to relatively strongly criticize the state and centralization of economic power in China, and be received well.

“the seeds of their current crisis were sown in 2010 with their big stimulus” by Hu Jintao

What was the stimulus exactly? GPT 4.5 says:

The 2010 stimulus was China’s massive infrastructure-focused spending spree, totaling around $586 billion, aimed at rapidly boosting economic growth after the global financial crisis. This led to excessive debt, overcapacity, and unsustainable investments that are now causing economic instability.

60% of Chinese income is from what they call their tier-three cities.

What is the equivalent distribution like for the US?

China’s manufacturing of “green energy, AI, electric vehicles” is “still tiny compared to infrastructure and real estate. Real estate’s a third of the economy by some measures”

Savings